I just thought I would play around on some of the Adoption Referral Forecasters today. I really shouldn't have done this. This is what one had to say:
Our prediction for LID 2006-08-30
Our best guess - a weighted average of recent CCAA velocities, guessing that CCAA will perform about as well in the future as they are performing now, but might return to previous trends: 2010-04-12
That's our best guess for when you might receive your referral. Just at a guess, we can suppose that the CCAA either speeds up or slows down significantly, and show you those dates. If they speed up: 2009-01-16. And if they slow down: 2012-09-02.
Since China generally sends out referrals in a batch about once per month, your referral date could easily vary +/- one month depending on whether you just get included or just get missed in a particular batch.
Yes, you read that right. They are predicting our referral will come April 12, 2010. That isn't even funny.